Trump's Economic Approval Hits All-Time Low as Midterms Near, CNBC Poll
Eight in 10 Americans rate the economy as fair or poor, a finding CNBC says helps explain why Republican candidates face uphill battles
By AXY Economy Desk ·
Key points
- Eight out of 10 Americans rate the economy as fair or poor, according to a CNBC poll.
- Trump's approval rating on the economy has hit an all-time low in the same survey.
- CNBC said the findings are one of several that show why Republican candidates face uphill battles.
- The November midterms will test whether economic frustration translates into votes for Congress.
Eight out of 10 Americans now rate the economy as fair or poor, according to a new CNBC poll that also finds President Donald Trump's approval rating on the economy has hit an all-time low. The survey comes as the US midterm elections approach. CNBC said the economic numbers are one of several findings that show why Republican candidates face uphill battles.
Those are blunt numbers for the White House. Most people judge the economy through their own bills and bank balances: what groceries cost, whether a paycheck stretches to the end of the month, whether a job feels safe, and whether buying a home or a car is still within reach. When eight out of 10 people say the economy is only fair or poor, that is a broad verdict on daily finances, not a complaint from one narrow group.
Eight in 10 Americans Say the Economy Is Fair or Poor
The core finding is simple. Eight out of 10 Americans rate the economy as fair or poor. In the same CNBC poll, Trump's approval on the economy has reached an all-time low, which makes it the most striking figure in the survey for the president's party.
The two ratings mean different things, and both matter. A rating of fair suggests people feel the economy is getting by rather than doing well. A rating of poor is harsher. When those two answers together cover most of the country, the message is that many households do not feel the economy is delivering security or progress. Voters tend to reward those feelings, or punish their absence, when they reach the ballot box.
The poll also helps separate how people see the country's overall economy from how they see their own situation. The source material does not break the findings down further, so it is not clear from the reporting how much of the gloom reflects prices, jobs, interest rates or something else. What is clear is that the pessimism is widespread enough to show up as a national pattern.
Why Trump's Economic Approval Hitting a Low Matters
Presidential approval on the economy matters because the economy touches nearly every household. Presidents are often judged on it more than on any other issue. If prices feel high or jobs feel uncertain, many voters hold the sitting president responsible, even when the causes are complicated and stretch back across many years of policy and global events.
For ordinary people, the stakes are concrete. When households feel uneasy about the economy, they tend to become more cautious. They may delay a big purchase, put off a move, hold off on changing jobs or starting a business, or pull back on borrowing. Those decisions can slow down local shops, builders and employers, which can then feed back into the economic mood that voters report in polls.
The political stakes follow the same path. Economic approval shapes how people view the president, and it also colours how they view members of Congress, governors and local officials. Many campaigns for those offices are fought over the same cost-of-living questions, so a national slump in confidence tends to spill into races that have nothing to do with the White House directly.
How Midterm Elections Turn Economic Mood Into Votes
In the United States, midterm elections are held in November of even-numbered years, between presidential contests. They fall about halfway through a president's four-year term. Every seat in the House of Representatives is up for election, along with about one-third of the Senate. Because the entire House is on the ballot, midterms are widely treated as a referendum on the sitting president.
History offers a pattern that party strategists watch closely. The party holding the presidency has lost House seats in most midterm elections over the past century, although there have been exceptions. History does not decide any single race, but it helps explain why a sour economic mood can alarm a party long before election day.
The mechanics are straightforward. Many House races are decided in competitive districts where a small shift in turnout or opinion can change the result. In those places, a candidate who has to defend the president's economic record faces a harder conversation with voters than one who can talk about local issues alone.
Why CNBC Says Republican Candidates Face Uphill Battles
CNBC said the poll shows why Republican candidates face uphill battles, and the economic approval figures are central to that picture. When most voters rate the economy poorly, candidates from the president's party have to answer for conditions many of them did not control. They have to do that in districts where many voters may already be uneasy about money.
The national mood is not the whole story. A campaign in a manufacturing town can hear about different worries than a campaign in a fast-growing suburb, and a candidate's own record matters as much as the president's. Still, a national poll with low marks on the economy sets the backdrop for every local conversation. It also shapes decisions about where parties and donors spend money, because they tend to put resources into races they think they can win.
This could push Republican campaigns toward messages about jobs, taxes and household costs. It could also push some candidates to put distance between themselves and the president on economic questions, or to explain what they would do differently. Which approach works will depend on the candidate, the district and how voters weigh economic pain against the other issues on their ballot.
Democratic candidates face their own pressures. A poll showing widespread economic frustration gives them a clear opening to press voters on prices and living costs. The risk for any candidate is that voters who feel the economy is weak may still blame the party in power for problems that started long before the current term, so the message has to be specific to be believed.
What the Midterm Calendar Means for November
The next test is the midterm vote itself. Voters will decide in November whether to keep the current balance of power in Congress or shift it. Between now and then, economic conditions will keep changing, and the way people feel about them may change with them. A single poll captures opinion at one moment. It is not a forecast of the final result, but a record low on the economy gives both parties a reason to watch the numbers closely.
For the White House, the poll is a reminder that approval on the economy is one of the measures most closely watched during a presidency. Any administration that wants to improve those numbers has to show voters that their own bills and job prospects are moving in the right direction, not only that headline indicators look healthy. For Republicans running for Congress, the survey is a signal that economic messaging will be central to their campaigns, whether they want it to be or not.
For voters, the weeks before the election are a chance to test whether their own sense of the economy matches the national picture. They can look at what their local candidates say about prices, wages and jobs, and decide which of them they trust most to improve those conditions. Those choices, repeated across hundreds of districts, are what turn a poll result into an election outcome.
How Voters Judge the Economy Differently
Economic polls do not always measure the same thing. Some questions ask how people rate the economy overall, while others ask about approval of a specific leader's handling of it. The CNBC findings reported here cover both the general rating of the economy and Trump's approval on economic issues, and the two can move in different directions. A voter may think the economy is poor but still approve of a president's policies, or the reverse.
That gap is one reason campaigns pay close attention to how questions are worded and who is asked. It is also a reason readers should treat any single poll as one piece of evidence. The strongest reading comes from looking at whether a result is consistent over time and across different surveys, and whether it lines up with what people report about their own finances.
For now, the clearest facts are the ones CNBC reported. Eight out of 10 Americans rate the economy as fair or poor, Trump's approval on the economy has hit an all-time low in the same survey, and CNBC says these results help show why Republican candidates face uphill battles as the midterms draw near.
Questions and answers
What did the CNBC poll find about the economy?
The CNBC poll found that eight out of 10 Americans rate the economy as fair or poor. The same survey shows Trump's approval rating on the economy has hit an all-time low.
Why does the economic approval rating matter for the midterms?
Midterm elections decide the whole House of Representatives and about one-third of the Senate, so national mood on the economy can shape races across the country. CNBC said the poll helps explain why Republican candidates face uphill battles.
When are the US midterm elections?
US midterm elections are held in November of even-numbered years, about halfway through a president's four-year term. The vote decides control of the House and a portion of the Senate.
Topics: Donald Trump, CNBC poll, US midterm elections, US economy, Republican Party, Presidential approval, Congress
Sources: CNBC Economy