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Putin Seeks U.S. Ties Without Ceding Ground on Ukraine War

Moscow is keeping the Ukraine war on a separate track from possible business and diplomacy with Washington, a New York Times report says, and the approach now appears to be working

By AXY War & Crime Desk ·

Putin Seeks U.S. Ties Without Ceding Ground on Ukraine War

Key points

Russia has spent much of the past several years trying to keep two things apart: the war it is fighting in Ukraine, and the prospect of business deals and diplomacy with the United States. According to a New York Times report, those efforts now appear to be working. For Vladimir Putin, that could mean a route back to more normal relations with Washington without having to change course on a war that has shaped his government since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022.

The shift matters well beyond the Kremlin. Ukrainian families who have lived with shelling and occupation, European governments that have helped fund Ukraine's defense, and American companies that have dealt with sanctions limiting their options all have a stake in whether Moscow can reach a deal without paying a price for the war. Whether talks go anywhere, and what they would contain, could affect how long the fighting lasts and what any peace would look like on the ground.

The core of the New York Times report is simple. Russia has sought to separate the war in Ukraine from potential business deals and diplomacy with the United States, and that approach now appears to be paying off. The separation is the strategy. Everything else follows from it.

How Moscow Is Trying to Keep Ukraine Off the Trade Table

Think of the Russian approach as two tracks running side by side. On one track sit trade, diplomacy and a possible wider reset in relations with the United States. On the other sits the fighting in Ukraine and the question of what it would take to end it. If the two tracks stay apart, Russia can seek economic gains and better standing with Washington without being pressed on the harder issue of what it would have to give up in Ukraine.

That separation is not a small thing. The war has been the main obstacle between Moscow and Washington for years. Keeping it out of the conversation about deals lets both sides talk about progress on something other than the front line.

The background helps explain why Moscow would want this. Russia's conflict with Ukraine did not begin in 2022. Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula in 2014 and backed armed groups in parts of eastern Ukraine, and the full-scale invasion followed in February 2022. Russia has described its military campaign as a response to security concerns. That framing lets Moscow present any settlement as a matter of its own interests, rather than as a withdrawal from territory it has taken or a concession to Kyiv.

Separating the issues also changes how the war looks in public. When the discussion is about contracts, travel links or restored channels of communication, the news reads as progress. When the discussion is about towns, troops and the territory still contested in Ukraine, it reads as a grinding stalemate with a heavy human cost. Keeping the first version in the headlines makes the second harder to see.

Why Sanctions Relief Makes Such a Strong Bargaining Chip

Sanctions are the piece of the puzzle that gives the separation strategy its weight. Since 2022, Western governments have imposed restrictions that limit Russia's access to many banks, markets and technologies, along with a range of trade and energy measures. For a government in Moscow, any easing of those restrictions would be a significant prize. For companies in Washington and elsewhere, the same rules shape which deals are possible at all.

That is why relief from sanctions is so attractive in a bilateral conversation. It is concrete. It can be defined, announced and measured. A lifted restriction or a new commercial arrangement can be presented as a win by both governments, even if the war it sits beside remains unresolved. The more valuable that relief looks, the stronger the incentive for both sides to keep the talks focused on it.

The New York Times report does not describe any specific sanctions decision. What it does describe is the logic behind the approach: business and diplomacy are easier to bargain over than a war, and they offer quicker results that leaders can point to at home.

Where Ukraine Fits When Washington and Moscow Talk Business

This is where the risk for Ukraine comes into focus. A bilateral understanding between Moscow and Washington could take shape around economic and diplomatic gains before Kyiv has a clear role in the terms. Decisions about territory, security guarantees and the future of occupied regions are the sort of questions that cannot be settled well without the country most affected at the table.

That is AXY's analysis rather than a claim made in the source. If Washington came to value a broader relationship with Moscow for its own sake, pressure on Kyiv to accept terms it sees as unacceptable could grow. A deal that rewarded Russia economically while leaving the fighting unresolved would be hard to describe as a settlement, and it could leave Ukraine negotiating from a weaker position than it had before.

For Ukrainians, the question is not abstract. People living near the front have spent years under shelling, uncertainty and, in some areas, occupation. For them, the practical test of any diplomacy is whether the fighting stops, on what terms, and whether they can return to homes that have been damaged or cut off.

The ICC Warrant That Hangs Over Any Reset

The war in Ukraine is also a legal dispute, not only a contest over borders. The International Criminal Court, a court based in The Hague in the Netherlands that tries individuals for the most serious international crimes, issued an arrest warrant for Putin in March 2023. The warrant accuses him of the unlawful deportation and transfer of children from occupied areas of Ukraine.

Russia does not recognize the court's authority, and no arrest has been made. That gap is part of the problem. An arrest warrant is a legal instrument, and it has no direct effect on a leader who stays in his own country and continues to deal with other governments. But it remains a formal allegation against the man at the centre of the Russian approach.

The warrant matters to the separation strategy because it is hard to set aside. A normalization of ties that treats Putin as a regular partner in trade and diplomacy would sit awkwardly alongside an outstanding ICC warrant. For the families of children who were moved, and for Ukrainians who have documented abuses, the question is whether these allegations are still part of the conversation, or whether they quietly fall away as the economic talks move forward. This is where the central tension of the story sits. A leader can be welcomed back into discussions while the claims against him remain unresolved, and the people most directly affected have the least power over the outcome.

What Europe and Ukrainians Could Lose or Gain

European governments have carried much of the financial and military support for Ukraine since 2022. A US-Russia understanding that moved ahead without them would test their influence. European capitals could find themselves reacting to terms they did not help write, especially on sanctions, which many of them have a direct stake in.

The outcome for Ukraine is harder to predict, and the stakes are highest there. A settlement that froze the fighting without addressing territory, security or accountability would leave millions of people in a state of uncertainty. A settlement that restored normal relations between Washington and Moscow while the war continued would give Russia something it has wanted for years, without requiring it to change the military situation on the ground.

For readers outside the region, the story is about whether a war can be shelved in exchange for better commercial and diplomatic ties. For people in Ukraine and Europe, it is about whether their security, money and homes will be decided in rooms they are not in.

Signals That Will Show Whether the Split Holds

The next test is whether the separation holds. If talks on business and diplomacy move forward while fighting continues, that would suggest Russia has achieved its central aim. If Washington links any easing of relations to movement on the war, the two tracks would meet. Moscow would then face a harder choice about what it is willing to concede.

Three signals are worth watching. The first is whether any announced contact between the United States and Russia mentions Ukraine directly. Silence on the war in a formal readout would be a clear sign of how the talks are being framed. The second is whether Kyiv is included in the discussions that follow. A process that moves forward without Ukrainian participation would confirm the concern that the war is being bypassed. The third is whether questions of accountability, including the ICC warrant, are raised or dropped. Any move to set the warrant aside in a deal would be a significant development in its own right.

Each of these signals would show whether Putin's apparent gain is a step toward a settlement or a way of avoiding one. For now, the New York Times report describes an approach that appears to be working. Whether it keeps working will depend on whether the war stays in the room.

Questions and answers

What is Russia trying to do with the United States over Ukraine?

According to a New York Times report, Russia has tried to separate the war in Ukraine from possible business deals and diplomacy with the United States. The report says those efforts now appear to be working.

Why does separating the Ukraine war from business deals matter?

It could let Russia win economic benefits and better relations without addressing what it would have to give up in Ukraine. For Ukrainians, the risk is that a deal between Moscow and Washington could be shaped before Kyiv has a clear say.

Is Vladimir Putin facing legal action over Ukraine?

In March 2023 the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin over the unlawful deportation and transfer of children from occupied areas of Ukraine. Russia does not recognize the court's authority, and no arrest has been made.

What should be watched next in US-Russia talks on Ukraine?

Key signals include whether Ukraine is mentioned directly in US-Russia contacts, whether Kyiv is included in future discussions, and whether the ICC warrant is raised or set aside.

Topics: Vladimir Putin, Ukraine war, United States, Russia, International Criminal Court, US-Russia relations, Ukraine peace talks

Sources: New York Times World RSS

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