Attacks on Ships Near Hormuz Reach Record High as Oil Exports Slow
UK maritime data shows 12 vessels struck in one week, while the recovery in oil shipments through the strait loses momentum
By AXY Business Desk ·
Key points
- BBC Verify analysis of UKMTO data shows 12 ships reported attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz between 5 and 11 October, the highest weekly total since the conflict with Iran began.
- Oil shipments through the strait, which had been recovering the previous month, have slowed as attacks have increased.
- The container ship GFS Pride sank after a strike on Tuesday, and 21 crew were evacuated; the Petro Dolphin was hit by a drone near Oman, more than 250 km from the strait.
- Experts say Tehran is attacking ships to assert control over the waterway, while the US military is escorting more tankers through the southern strait.
The number of ships reporting attacks in and around the Strait of Hormuz has reached a record high, with 12 vessels struck between 5 and 11 October, according to BBC Verify's analysis of data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency. It is the largest number of weekly strikes the agency has recorded since the US-Israeli war with Iran began. The rise in attacks comes as the recovery in oil shipments through the strait, seen the previous month, has slowed, according to industry data.
What the latest figures show
BBC Verify collated incident reports published by the UKMTO on its website and built a timeline based on the first date cited in each report. The outlet notes that this timeline is approximate, because some reports use the date of the attack and others use the date on which it was reported. Even with that caveat, the trend is clear. The previous week recorded 10 ships reporting attacks, so the total rose by two in the most recent week analysed.
Six of the vessels were struck on the Sunday of that week, according to the UKMTO, making it the single worst day in the figures. So far in the current week, four further attacks have been reported. Because the figures are drawn from ongoing reports, the totals may change as more incidents are documented.
Vessels hit and crews at risk
One of the six attacks on Sunday was captured in verified footage showing the Nicaragua-flagged tanker Petro Dolphin on fire. The footage was filmed by the crew from a smaller boat nearby. According to the maritime intelligence firm Vanguard, the vessel was struck by a drone close to the Sohar Anchorage in Oman, more than 250 kilometres (150 miles) from the strait. That distance matters: it indicates that the attacks are not confined to the immediate waterway. The Forward Seamen's Union of India said 11 Indian seafarers were rescued from the Petro Dolphin, but two remain missing.
Attacks have continued this week. The container ship GFS Pride sank after being struck by an unknown projectile in the strait on Tuesday. Twenty-one crew members were safely evacuated. Sinking a large container ship is a serious escalation in terms of both the damage to commercial shipping and the risk to the people working on board, and it shows that the threat is not limited to tankers.
Why the Strait of Hormuz matters for global oil
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway that connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the wider Arabian Sea. Oil and gas produced by several Gulf countries must pass through it to reach international markets, because there is no alternative sea route of comparable size. The US Energy Information Administration has estimated in past analyses that roughly a fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption moves through the strait, which is why any disruption there is watched closely by energy traders, governments and shipping companies around the world.
The waterway is also unusually difficult to bypass. Pipelines exist that can carry some crude oil around the strait, but their capacity is limited compared with the volume of seaborne trade that normally passes through the passage. When ships avoid the area or move more slowly, the effects can spread quickly to fuel prices, insurance costs and the availability of supplies in import-dependent economies.
Who is behind the attacks, according to experts
According to experts cited by BBC Verify, Tehran has been attacking ships in an effort to assert greater control over the waterway. At the same time, the US military has increased the number of tankers it is escorting through the southern part of the strait in an attempt to avoid Iranian strikes. Analysts describing this pattern would say that the two developments are linked: as more protected convoys move through the area, the contest over the passage has become more direct.
Experts also say Iran is carrying out more attacks on vessels further away from the Strait of Hormuz. The Petro Dolphin incident near Oman is one example. Attacks at a greater distance can be harder to defend against and may signal that the affected area is being widened, which would extend the risk to shipping routes that have not previously been seen as directly exposed. These are analytical judgements based on the expert view reported by BBC Verify, not confirmed statements of intent.
Official and industry responses
The US military's Central Command, which oversees operations in the Middle East, said on social media that despite the attacks "commercial traffic continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz with co-ordinated protection from US forces and regional partners". That message presents the strait as open and protected. The attack data, however, shows a rising number of reported incidents and a slowdown in oil shipments, so the official reassurance and the industry figures point in different directions.
The union representing Indian seafarers has focused on the human cost. Its statement that two crew members are still missing underlines that the risk of attacks is borne not only by shipowners and insurers but also by the sailors who work aboard vessels crossing the region. Analysts would typically expect such incidents to push up war-risk insurance premiums for ships entering the area, which could raise the cost of moving oil and other goods, although the source material does not provide figures on any such changes.
Why it matters for ordinary people
For most readers, the significance of the story lies in what happens to the cost and reliability of everyday goods. Oil is a core input for transport, heating, electricity and manufacturing. If shipments through the strait slow for a sustained period, markets may react with higher prices for crude and refined products, and those costs can reach households through petrol, diesel, heating bills and the prices of goods that depend on shipping. Economists generally expect that the size and duration of any disruption would determine how far those effects travel.
The safety of seafarers is another immediate concern. Crews on commercial vessels are generally civilians, and the loss of a container ship, the drone strike on a tanker and the missing crew members all show the direct human stakes of the conflict at sea. Families of those on board, as well as shipping companies that employ them, are likely to be closely following any further reports.
What to watch next
Several developments will help show whether the trend described in the latest figures continues. The first is the UKMTO's incident reporting, since weekly counts are the main public measure of attacks in the area. Readers should keep in mind that the dates in these reports can refer either to the day of the attack or the day it was reported, so short-term changes should be read with caution.
The second is the scale of the US escort operation. If more tankers are protected, it will be clear whether this reduces successful strikes or whether attacks shift to other areas, as the Petro Dolphin incident suggests may already be happening. The third is the status of the two Indian seafarers still listed as missing, and any further information on the crew of the GFS Pride and the cause of its sinking, which the source describes only as an unknown projectile.
Finally, the most important indicator for the wider economy will be data on oil shipments through the strait. The source material reports that the earlier recovery has slowed, and sustained figures in the coming weeks will show whether that slowdown becomes a longer-term decline or a temporary pause.
Topics: Strait of Hormuz, Oil shipments, Iran, UK Maritime Trade Operations, Shipping attacks, US Central Command, Tanker safety, BBC Verify
Sources: BBC Business
https://axynewsglobal.com/article/attacks-on-ships-near-hormuz-reach-record-high-as-oil-exports-slow