Arab-Led and Ultra-Orthodox Parties May Decide Israel's Election
Ra'am and the Joint List are projected to win 13 seats combined and could be critical to any coalition formed after the October 27 vote
By AXY Politics Desk ·
Key points
- Ra'am and the Joint List, which represent Palestinian citizens of Israel, are projected to win 13 seats combined in the October 27 election.
- Their seats could be critical to any post-election coalition, regardless of its political stripe.
- Both Netanyahu's camp and most of the Zionist opposition have publicly ruled out governing with these parties.
- Neither the Netanyahu bloc nor the opposition is on track for an outright majority in the 120-seat Knesset, according to polls.
- The Joint List has offered a 'safety net' in confidence votes in exchange for conditions including a path to Palestinian statehood and action against organised crime.
Israel's Arab-led parties and its ultra-Orthodox parties could hold the balance of power after the country's October 27 election, according to Al Jazeera's report published on October 19, 2026. Ra'am and the Joint List, the two parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, who make up about 20 percent of the population, are projected to win 13 seats between them. If that projection holds at the polls, the Arab-led lists could be pivotal to whichever government emerges, regardless of its political leaning. Few parties have been targeted more often by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in his campaign attacks on rivals.
Why the Arab-led parties are in the spotlight
Israel's Knesset, its 120-seat parliament, is elected by nationwide proportional representation, meaning seats are awarded to parties according to their share of the vote. No single party has won an outright majority in most recent elections, which means governments are usually built from coalitions of several parties. A coalition needs at least 61 seats to command a majority in the Knesset. Because of this arithmetic, smaller parties that can supply a handful of seats often become decisive, even when they are not large enough to lead a government themselves.
Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, and the Joint List, an alliance of three parties, are the main vehicles for Palestinian citizens of Israel in national politics. The Joint List includes Ta'al, led by Ahmad Tibi, along with Hadash and Balad. Their importance in this election is therefore arithmetic as much as it is political: if they clear the threshold and win seats as projected, their combined strength could tip the outcome in a closely divided parliament.
A precedent from 2021
The question of whether Arab parties can enter government is not new. In 2021, Ra'am became the first Arab party to join an Israeli government, as part of a broad coalition that briefly removed Netanyahu from power after more than a decade in office. Netanyahu had previously signalled that he was prepared to negotiate terms for a potential government with Abbas and the United Arab List. Instead, Abbas joined the coalition of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, aiming to push through measures he had campaigned on.
That episode shaped how the current campaign is being fought. It showed that an Arab party could move from the opposition benches into a governing majority, and it also showed how fragile such arrangements can be. The coalition that included Ra'am was narrow, and it did not last. Analysts watching the current campaign see that experience as the reference point for both sides' calculations about whether Arab parties can be brought into a future government, even if neither camp currently says it wants to do so.
Netanyahu's camp and the opposition trade accusations
This time, both Netanyahu's camp and most leaders of the self-styled Zionist opposition bloc have publicly ruled out forming a government with the parties representing Palestinian citizens. Yet the public stance has not stopped the political attacks. Netanyahu and his allies have tried to portray their rivals as dependent on the Arab-led lists. The opposition, in turn, has accused Netanyahu's bloc of relying on the ultra-Orthodox parties to sustain its own power base.
The Likud party, which Netanyahu leads, is at the centre of the far-right coalition that has governed in recent years. Its campaign advertising has been particularly sharp. According to Al Jazeera, Likud has used attack adverts warning that if Netanyahu is voted out, the Arab parties would emerge as kingmakers in a new government potentially led by former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, the leader of the Yashar party. One Likud campaign slogan, cited in the report, read: 'There is no Gadi without Tibi,' referring to Ahmad Tibi, the leader of Ta'al.
Yossi Mekelberg, a Middle East analyst at Chatham House, told Al Jazeera that the two sides are both acting with an eye to the arithmetic. 'Netanyahu would work with Ra'am in a heartbeat, if it meant staying in power,' he said. He also argued that the opposition does not appear to grasp the consequences of its own attacks. 'If it came down to it, of course they'd accept the support of the party they'd previously vilified without thinking of how that will undermine their government, and undermine the votes of the large numbers of Arab Israelis who support them,' Mekelberg said.
The point of Mekelberg's comments is that the rhetoric on both sides may be a poor guide to what parties do after the votes are counted. Political leaders in Israel have, in the past, publicly ruled out partners and then negotiated with them once the numbers were clear. Whether that happens again will depend on how many seats each bloc wins and how much room it has to manoeuvre.
Polls point to a close race
Opinion polls have consistently shown Netanyahu's Likud and the far-right coalition it leads running neck and neck with the Zionist opposition bloc. Neither side is on track to win an outright majority of the 120 seats. That is the central reason smaller parties have become so important. If neither bloc can govern alone, the parties that sit outside the two main camps, including the Arab-led lists and the ultra-Orthodox parties, can determine which side forms a government.
The ultra-Orthodox, or Haredi, parties are the other group whose choices are being scrutinised. The opposition has attacked Netanyahu's camp for depending on them to hold its position, while Netanyahu's allies have pointed to the opposition's own dealings. The result is a campaign in which both blocs are vulnerable to the charge that they would rely on parties they publicly criticise, which is why the question of coalition partners has become so prominent.
What the Joint List is demanding
The Joint List has said it could provide what it calls a safety net for an anti-Netanyahu coalition. Under this proposal, the alliance would agree not to stand against such a government in a confidence vote, even if it did not join the government itself. A confidence vote is a parliamentary vote on whether a government retains the support of the house, and voting against it can bring down a government. Abstaining or not opposing would therefore allow a government to take office and function without being part of it.
In return, the Joint List has said it would demand certain conditions. According to the Al Jazeera report, these include a path to Palestinian statehood and action against organised crime. Organised crime has been a major concern for Arab communities in Israel in recent years, and the Joint List's willingness to make it a condition reflects the domestic focus of its platform alongside its positions on the broader conflict.
These demands would be difficult for any government to accept in full, particularly one led by parties that have ruled out a path to Palestinian statehood or that rely on coalition partners who oppose such a step. The conditions therefore frame how much influence the Arab-led lists could realistically exert, and whether a safety-net arrangement would turn into a formal partnership.
What to watch after October 27
The key figure to watch is whether Ra'am and the Joint List reach the 13 seats projected by pollsters, and how that total compares with the seats held by Netanyahu's bloc and the Zionist opposition. Analysts will look at whether either side can build a majority without them, and whether any party that has ruled out cooperation changes its position once coalition talks begin.
The political stakes extend beyond seat totals. For Palestinian citizens of Israel, who make up about a fifth of the population, the outcome will influence how much representation they have in government and whether their parties can shape policy on issues such as crime and the future of the Palestinian territories. For the wider region, the composition of the next government will shape Israel's approach to negotiations and security. Analysts caution that coalition talks in Israel can take weeks, and that the final shape of any government may differ sharply from the promises made during the campaign.
Al Jazeera's report makes clear that the next government could be formed by parties many voters did not expect to matter, and that the rhetoric of the campaign may not reflect the choices made when the Knesset convenes. The results of the October 27 vote will show whether the kingmakers Netanyahu and his rivals have warned about will have a decisive role in the next government.
Questions and answers
Why could Arab-led parties decide Israel's election?
Opinion polls show Netanyahu's Likud bloc and the Zionist opposition bloc running neck and neck, with neither on track for an outright majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Ra'am and the Joint List are projected to win 13 seats combined, so their support could be critical to forming any coalition.
When is Israel's election?
The election is scheduled for October 27, according to the Al Jazeera report. The projected seat totals for Ra'am and the Joint List are based on polling ahead of that vote.
What is the Joint List demanding in return for support?
The Joint List has said it could agree not to stand against an anti-Netanyahu coalition in a confidence vote, even if it does not join the government. In return, it would demand a path to Palestinian statehood and action against organised crime.
Has an Arab party been in an Israeli government before?
Yes. In 2021, Ra'am became the first Arab party to enter an Israeli government, joining a broad coalition that briefly removed Netanyahu from power.
Topics: Israel election, Benjamin Netanyahu, Ra'am, Joint List, Mansour Abbas, Gadi Eisenkot, Knesset, Israeli coalition politics
Sources: Al Jazeera RSS
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